Austin Real Estate Market Update – July 30, 2025
"Austin housing supply surges while demand remains sluggish, extending buyer leverage deeper into the summer market."
The Austin housing market continues to display characteristics of a prolonged correction phase, defined by expanding inventory, moderated buyer activity, and persistent price adjustments from peak levels seen in 2022. Data released today for Wednesday, July 30, 2025, highlights ongoing pressure on sellers across most price segments, with buyers benefiting from increasing months of inventory, longer time on market, and more favorable negotiation terms. This analysis reviews the latest statistics in depth, examining the balance between supply and demand, absorption rates, pricing trends, and forward-looking projections for market stabilization.
Inventory Pressures Intensify
Active residential listings in the Austin area stand at 17,785, just 291 homes below the record high of 18,076 set on June 27, 2025. This represents a 16.2% increase compared to July 2024 when active inventory peaked at 15,311 listings. Year-to-date cumulative new listings have reached 33,622, marking a 6.5% increase over the same period last year and 26.8% above the long-term 25-year average. The sustained influx of new inventory continues to outpace absorption rates, creating conditions that tilt the market in favor of buyers across most submarkets.
Price reductions remain prevalent, with 59% of all active listings having experienced at least one drop. This widespread repricing indicates that sellers are adjusting expectations in response to tepid buyer activity and competitive listing conditions. Markets such as Georgetown, Liberty Hill, and Kyle are showing price drops in excess of 60%, signaling that many sellers are chasing demand with downward adjustments to attract offers.
Pending Sales and Activity Levels
Pending sales volume has shown a slight year-over-year improvement but remains soft relative to overall supply. There are currently 4,429 pending listings compared to 4,345 on this date last year, representing a 1.9% increase. Despite this uptick, cumulative pending transactions from January through July total 27,257, which is 2.5% below last year. The Activity Index stands at 19.9%, down nearly 10% from the 22.1% observed in 2024. This measure reflects the ratio of active listings to properties under contract, highlighting a slow pace of market turnover and weaker demand than typical for mid-summer months.
The New Listing to Pending ratio for July is currently 0.76, below the long-term average of 0.82. Year-to-date, the ratio is 0.70, reflecting a substantial surplus of unsold inventory compared to the pace of new contracts being written. This imbalance has left a cumulative gap of 6,365 more new listings than pending sales for the year—a figure that continues to widen.
Months of Inventory Reaches Multi-Year Highs
Months of Inventory (MOI) for July 2025 stands at 6.35, up 16.8% compared to 5.43 months at this time in 2024. Historically, Austin’s long-term balanced market range has been between 4 and 5 months of supply. The current levels mark a clear buyer’s market territory, where increased choice, reduced urgency, and heightened negotiating leverage define transaction dynamics. Several outlying submarkets are seeing extreme supply pressure, with cities like Cedar Creek, Jarrell, and Smithville reporting double-digit months of inventory—a strong indicator that demand is not keeping pace with listing growth in certain areas.
Sales Volume and Market Density
Closed sales volume remains below last year’s levels. July 2025 recorded 2,721 homes sold, bringing the cumulative total for the first seven months of the year to 17,898, a 4.7% decline from 2024. On a population-adjusted basis, this equates to 702 homes sold per 100,000 residents, which is 7% lower year-over-year and over 20% below Austin’s 25-year historical average. Realtor-per-capita sales density also shows similar declines, emphasizing that market throughput remains well below both recent and long-term benchmarks.
Pricing Trends and Market Correction Depth
Price trajectories continue to reflect the ongoing correction from the pandemic-era peak of May 2022. The average sold price in July 2025 is $582,319, down 14.6% or roughly $100,000 from its peak of $681,939. The median sold price now sits at $445,000, representing a 19.1% drop from its 2022 high of $550,000. These figures indicate that the market has effectively given back nearly one-fifth of its pandemic-driven gains, reverting pricing to late-2020 levels in real terms.
Compared to median prices 36 months ago, current values are 13.6% lower, suggesting that the correction has not only erased pandemic appreciation but has also undercut pre-boom valuations in many neighborhoods. The bottom 25th percentile of the market is seeing steeper $/sqft declines than the top 25th percentile, showing that affordability segments are feeling more pressure due to a surplus of competing inventory and elevated interest rates impacting entry-level buyers.
Absorption Rates and Market Flow Score
The Sold-to-Active ratio currently sits at 12.9%, dramatically below the historical average of 31.9%. This low absorption rate signals a market where inventory is accumulating faster than it is being cleared by buyer activity. Similarly, the Market Flow Score (MFS)—a normalized indicator of market velocity—registers at 2.79 on a 0-to-10 scale, less than half the long-term average of 6.6. These figures align with the broader narrative of a sluggish, supply-heavy environment where buyers can take their time, negotiate more aggressively, and often secure concessions that were unheard of during the 2021-2022 seller-dominated market.
Long-Term Recovery Projections
Using Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.934%, it is projected that it would take approximately 55 months—until January 2030—for median prices to return to their May 2022 peak of $550,000, assuming the current median of $445,000 marks the bottom of this cycle. This projection underscores the length of time required for market equilibrium to recover given the depth of the current correction, ongoing affordability challenges, and structural imbalances between new supply and household formation.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for July 30, 2025.
Top 5 Questions About the Austin Market (July 30, 2025)
1. Is Austin’s housing market still declining in 2025?
Yes. The market remains in a correction phase with median prices down 19% from 2022 highs and active inventory up 16.2% year-over-year. While new listings continue to flow in, pending sales and closed transactions are not keeping pace, causing sustained downward pressure on pricing.
2. How long will it take for Austin home prices to recover to peak values?
Based on historical appreciation rates, it could take approximately 55 months, or until early 2030, for median prices to reach their 2022 highs of $550,000. This projection assumes stable economic conditions, no additional market shocks, and a gradual improvement in supply-demand balance.
3. Are certain Austin submarkets performing better than others?
Yes, performance varies. Some areas like Kyle, Georgetown, and Leander are experiencing strong supply pressure with higher months of inventory, leading to more aggressive price reductions. Meanwhile, central Austin submarkets, while also correcting, have slightly better absorption rates and tighter inventory levels relative to suburban fringe areas.
4. What does the current Months of Inventory mean for buyers and sellers?
With MOI at 6.35 months, buyers have greater leverage. They can negotiate on price, request concessions, and take more time making purchase decisions. Sellers face increased competition, longer time on market, and the likelihood of making multiple price reductions before securing a buyer.
5. How does 2025 compare to Austin’s long-term market norms?
Key indicators such as sales per population, absorption rate, and Market Flow Score are all significantly below long-term averages. For example, homes sold per 100k population are 20.5% below the 25-year norm, and the Sold-to-Active ratio is less than half the historical benchmark. These deviations highlight that the market is still rebalancing after the unprecedented highs of 2021-2022.
Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?
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