The Austin housing market continues to move through a correction phase as we approach the end of 2025, and today’s data offers a clear look at where the market stands and where it is most likely headed next. Inventory is growing, sales velocity is slowing, and price expectations are still adjusting to match today’s absorption levels, which are now well below historical norms. For anyone watching the Austin real estate forecast closely, this moment represents a turning point where the market’s challenge is no longer just high supply, but also a measurable lack of urgency from buyers. The current combination of rising active listings, declining activity levels, and suppressed absorption places increasing pressure on prices and indicates that market stabilization remains ahead of us, not behind.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
Active residential listings are now at 15,364. That is a 14.3 percent increase from this time last year and only slightly below the 2024 summer peak of 15,503. Even more telling is that 58.1 percent of all active listings have already had at least one price reduction. That number alone signals resistance in buyer engagement and confirms that sellers are still adjusting from previous expectations. The market continues to carry substantial supply relative to current levels of demand, which is why pricing compression has accelerated in the second half of this year. Many sellers still enter the market with optimistic list prices, only to later adjust downward as the lack of offers and slower feedback from buyers forces their hand.
Demand, while not absent, is simply not strong enough to keep pace with supply. Pending listings are down 0.8 percent year over year, and cumulative pending contracts from January through November are 3.9 percent lower than the same period last year. This is despite the fact that cumulative new listings are 3.4 percent higher year over year and 21 percent higher than the long term average. More properties are coming to the market, but fewer are making it to contract. When austin real estate is evaluated against the historical trend line, this is one of the clearest indicators that the market is still burdened by excess inventory and insufficient buyer motivation. As absorption slows, days on market extend, and price stabilization becomes increasingly dependent on deeper price adjustments or a major improvement in demand.
The Activity Index for 2025 is now at 20.3 percent compared to 22.7 percent this time last year. That 10.5 percent decline confirms that momentum has not only softened, it has moved clearly into what we classify as Softening and Contraction phases. More specifically, 47 percent of the resale market currently falls into the Contraction or Danger Zone range of 15 to 20 percent, and another 37 percent is within the Crisis or Freeze range below 15 percent. Only 8 percent of the market operates above 25 percent, where conditions would normally produce stable or accelerating movement. For buyers, this presents increased leverage and the ability to negotiate more aggressively. For sellers, it represents a critical warning that strategy must shift quickly. Proper pricing is no longer just a best practice but a requirement for successful outcomes.
New construction is performing somewhat better, posting an Activity Index of 27.55 percent compared to 17.24 percent for resale. That difference reflects the fact that builders are still able to use incentives, rate buydowns, and structured financing to move inventory, while typical resale sellers remain largely dependent on price reductions and reactionary strategy adjustments. For real estate agents advising clients, this gap between new construction and resale is valuable when deciding whether to compete directly with builder product or look for opportunities in resale where price flexibility is greater. Investors examining the austin housing forecast should note that resale property performance more accurately reflects underlying strength or weakness because new construction performance is partially artificially supported.
The New Listing to Pending ratio for the month is 0.79, continuing the trend of impaired absorption. The year to date ratio is 0.72, while the 25 year average is 0.82. This is now the third consecutive year below average, which aligns with ongoing price pressure and extended time to recovery. Months of Inventory currently sit at 5.46 compared to 4.75 last year, a 15 percent increase. This places much of the Austin area in Buyer Advantage territory, with an increasing number of submarkets entering full Buyer Control conditions where inventory levels exceed 270 days and pricing erosion accelerates. Austin proper is now at 5.08 months of inventory, which is soft but not extreme, yet trends clearly point further upward without a significant shift in demand or a reduction in new listing flow.
Sales volume further supports the current narrative. There were 2,226 properties sold in November. Cumulative sold properties from January through November total 27,903, down 3.3 percent year over year but still 7.8 percent above the long term average. However, the efficiency of sales relative to the market is much lower. Cumulative sales per 100,000 population are down 5.6 percent and sit 20.5 percent below the average. Sales per 1,000 realtors are up slightly year over year at 1,508, but still nearly 23 percent below average, highlighting that while volume is technically surviving, market competitiveness is low and productivity is still well below historical expectations.
Price performance remains one of the most crucial factors to watch. The average sold price for November is $598,405. Compared to the May 2022 peak of $681,939, that is a drop of 12.25 percent, or approximately $84,000. The median sold price is $450,852, down 18.03 percent from the May 2022 median of $550,000, a decline of $99,000. Median prices are now 1.99 percent below where they were 36 months ago, illustrating that appreciation has effectively stalled at a net zero rate over the last three years. Long term data shows the Austin market carries a 25 year annual appreciation rate of 4.989 percent. If today’s median price reflects the bottom of the correction, it would take an estimated 52 months to return to the previous peak level of $550,794 under typical compound appreciation. That points to a recovery timeline extending into early 2030, assuming conditions normalize and positive appreciation resumes at historical rates.
The market is showing a widening gap between high tier and low tier property performance. In the high 25th percentile, prices are up 6.56 percent year over year with price per square foot up 3.83 percent, suggesting that upper tier homes with strong locations or standout features are still commanding premiums. In contrast, the bottom quartile shows only 0.85 percent price growth and a 0.58 percent decline in price per square foot. This suggests that affordability-driven segments are no longer providing upside and that most market strength is held at the higher end, where buyer dollars are more selective and targeted.
This is further confirmed in the Market Flow Score, which is currently 4.74 compared to its historical average of 6.59. The lower score reflects slower turnover, heavier supply, and decreased demand efficiency. The absorption rate is currently 16.58 percent, against a long term average of 31.70 percent. That gap helps explain why the market remains weighted toward buyers and why sellers who hold firm on pricing often lose valuable time and ultimately sell lower than if they would have priced realistically at the outset. Real estate agents working in this landscape must emphasize truth in pricing, market-adjusted listing timelines, and the strategic importance of being one of the most competitive options within a given segment.
In summary, the Austin housing market continues to navigate a supply heavy environment with slowing demand and rising time on market. Excess inventory, reduced absorption, and significant price resistance are defining current conditions. While some segments show resilience, particularly at the higher end, the broader austin real estate forecast suggests continued pressure over the next six to eighteen months unless demand increases faster than expected. For buyers, the opportunity to negotiate remains strong. For sellers, strategic adaptation is critical. For investors, timing and entry point discipline will be key to long term positioning. Market stabilization will likely require either price recalibration to match buyer affordability or a material improvement in buyer demand, neither of which is showing in current data trends.
