Today’s austin real estate market update shows 12,687 active residential listings across the Austin area, which is 14.1 percent higher than this time last year. While that number is well below the prior cycle peak of 18,146 listings reached in late June 2025, it still reflects a market carrying significantly more supply than buyers are currently absorbing. Over half of all active listings, 53.6 percent, have already experienced at least one price reduction, reinforcing that sellers are adjusting expectations in response to slower traffic and fewer offers.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for January 13, 2026.
Inventory growth is being driven by both new construction and resale homes, though resale listings continue to make up the majority of supply. Of the total active listings, 8,760 are resale properties and 3,927 are new construction. This composition matters because resale homes are generally more sensitive to interest rates and buyer affordability, while new construction often benefits from incentives and builder financing tools that resale sellers cannot match. As a result, resale inventory is feeling more pressure, especially in mid-range price segments.
Pending listings provide a clear window into current buyer demand, and the numbers remain soft. There are 3,151 homes under contract today, down 5.9 percent compared to the same time last year. Resale pendings total 1,821, while new construction accounts for 1,330 pending listings. This gap highlights the continued advantage builders hold in attracting buyers, even as overall activity slows.
The Activity Index, which measures the percentage of active listings going under contract, has declined meaningfully. Today’s index stands at 19.9 percent, down from 23.1 percent one year ago, a 14 percent drop in market activity. Resale homes are particularly weak, with a resale Activity Index of just 17.21 percent, placing much of the market firmly in contraction territory. New construction performs better at 25.30 percent, but even that level reflects moderation compared to stronger years.
When breaking resale activity into market phases, a large share of submarkets now fall into contraction or crisis categories. Nearly half of resale areas are operating in the 15 to 20 percent Activity Index range, which historically aligns with stalled transactions, supply imbalances, and downward pressure on prices. An additional portion of the market has dropped below 15 percent, a zone typically associated with buyer hesitation and accelerating price corrections. This distribution explains why price reductions are widespread and why sellers are facing longer timelines.
Another important indicator confirming this slowdown is the new listing to pending ratio. The current monthly ratio sits at 0.50, meaning that for every two new listings coming to market, only one home is going under contract. This is far below the 25-year historical average of 0.82 and signals that new supply continues to outpace buyer absorption. Year to date, new listings exceed pending contracts by 513 homes, reinforcing that inventory is building rather than clearing.
Months of Inventory continues to rise and now stands at 4.50 months, up from 3.89 months last year, a 15.6 percent increase. While this level is not extreme by long-term standards, it represents a meaningful shift away from seller-dominant conditions. In resale-only terms, many areas are now solidly in buyer-advantage territory, with some submarkets approaching buyer-control conditions where excess supply typically leads to price declines and increased negotiation leverage.
Despite rising inventory, closed sales activity remains relatively steady. A total of 1,685 homes have sold so far this January, which is 10.3 percent lower than last year but still above long-term averages for early-year activity. This suggests that while fewer buyers are entering the market, those who do are still completing transactions, particularly when pricing aligns with current affordability realities.
Price trends continue to show a clear correction from the 2022 peak. The average sold price for January is $607,859, down nearly 11 percent, or roughly $74,000, from the May 2022 high. Median pricing shows an even larger adjustment. The current median sold price is $450,000, down 18.18 percent, or about $100,000, from the same 2022 peak. Median prices tend to better reflect typical buyer behavior, and this decline underscores how affordability constraints have reshaped the austin housing market.
When comparing today’s median prices to those from 36 months ago, pricing is essentially flat, with a change of just 0.01 percent. This indicates that much of the pandemic-era appreciation has been absorbed by the correction, bringing values closer to longer-term trend lines. Using the Austin market’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate of 4.785 percent, a return from today’s median price of $450,000 to the prior peak near $551,000 would take approximately 53 months, placing that recovery around May 2030 if appreciation follows historical norms.
Price performance is not uniform across all segments. The bottom 25 percent of the market saw prices decline 2.55 percent year over year, with price per square foot down 5.10 percent. In contrast, the top 25 percent experienced a 3.68 percent price increase, even though price per square foot slipped slightly. This divergence highlights how higher-end buyers are less constrained by financing conditions, while entry-level and mid-range buyers remain highly sensitive to rates and monthly payments.
Geographically, only six cities in the Austin area posted year-over-year median price gains, while 24 cities saw declines. This broad-based softness suggests that the correction is not isolated to a single submarket but is instead affecting most of the region, especially areas with elevated inventory growth.
Demand relative to supply remains muted, as reflected in the absorption rate. The sold-to-active ratio currently sits at 23.45 percent, well below the historical average of 31.61 percent. A lower absorption rate indicates that inventory is taking longer to sell and that buyers have more options to choose from, which typically limits upward price pressure.
Interestingly, the Market Flow Score stands at 8.57, above the historical average of 6.59. This suggests that while overall demand is lower, the market is still functioning efficiently, with homes that are properly priced and well positioned continuing to move. In practical terms, this means the market is selective rather than frozen. Correctly priced homes attract buyers, while overpriced listings tend to linger and require multiple adjustments.
For buyers, this austin housing forecast points to increasing leverage. Higher inventory levels, widespread price reductions, and slower activity create opportunities to negotiate on price, terms, and concessions. Buyers who remain patient and data-driven are better positioned than they have been in several years.
For sellers, the environment demands realism. Pricing a home based on 2022 or early 2023 benchmarks is unlikely to succeed. Homes that enter the market aligned with current demand trends have a far better chance of selling without extended time on market or repeated price cuts.
For investors and agents, the data reinforces the importance of focusing on cash flow, realistic appreciation timelines, and local submarket dynamics. The austin real estate forecast no longer supports rapid appreciation assumptions, but it does favor disciplined strategies built around long-term fundamentals.
