Austin Housing Inventory Hits 14,983 Active Listings

March 2026 Market Update

Austin's housing market is carrying more supply than it has in years, but the buyers who are stepping forward right now may be making some of the best real estate decisions of the decade.

The austin real estate landscape on March 30, 2026, tells a nuanced story. Active residential listings currently stand at 14,983, which is 6.0% higher than the same point in 2025, when the count was 14,141. While that increase may seem modest, it represents a market that has been steadily building inventory since the overheated boom years of 2021 and early 2022. The previous peak in active listings reached 18,146 on June 30, 2025, meaning the current count sits about 3,163 homes below that high-water mark. The direction matters here. Inventory is not spiking; it is holding at an elevated but slightly retreating plateau, and that distinction carries real weight for anyone watching the austin housing forecast heading into spring.

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One of the most telling figures in today's data is the price reduction rate. Nearly half of all active listings, 46.7%, have had at least one price drop. That figure spans every corner of the market, from Liberty Hill at 59.8% to Driftwood at just 31.3%. When sellers in more than four out of ten listings are willing to cut their asking prices, it tells buyers something important: negotiating power is real right now. For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this is the kind of environment where patience pays off.

New construction and resale inventory are both contributing to the supply picture, though they are behaving differently. Of the 14,983 active listings, 3,726 are new construction and 11,257 are resale homes. On the pending side, there are currently 4,843 homes under contract, up 10.2% from the 4,396 recorded at this time in 2025. New construction accounts for 1,887 of those pending contracts, while resale properties make up 2,956. That pending jump is meaningful. Pending listings represent homes where buyers and sellers have reached an agreement, and a 10.2% year-over-year increase suggests that demand is stirring even within a market that still has more supply than it can quickly absorb.

The Activity Index helps put this in sharper focus. For resale homes, the Activity Index sits at 20.80%, which places the market squarely in the Softening phase, defined as a range between 20% and 25%. This means sales are moving at a slower pace, inventory is rising relative to demand, and price pressure continues to lean downward. New construction tells a different story, with an Activity Index of 33.62%, which falls in the Expansion phase and reflects stronger momentum from builders who are actively pricing and incentivizing their inventory to move. The overall blended Activity Index of 24.4% is a slight improvement over the 23.7% recorded at this point in 2025, a 3.0% year-over-year gain that hints at gradual stabilization.

Months of Inventory, another key indicator in this austin market update, currently sits at 5.34 months overall. That is up 6.1% from the 5.03 months recorded in March 2025. Looking further back, the two-year comparison is striking: Austin's Months of Inventory has expanded 49.1% since March 2024, when it stood at just 3.95 months. Within the market, cities like Cedar Park and Round Rock are sitting under four months of supply, which still reflects relatively tighter conditions, while outliers like Dale, Marble Falls, and Spicewood are carrying inventory levels well above nine months, firmly in Buyer Control territory.

The Absorption Rate provides another useful lens. Currently at 16.36%, this metric measures the percentage of active listings that sold in a given period. Against a historical average of 31.43%, today's number shows that fewer than one in six active listings is converting to a sale each month. During the market's peak efficiency in 2020 and 2021, this rate climbed above 100% in some months, meaning homes were selling faster than new ones were being listed. Today's environment is nearly the mirror opposite, and while it is not signaling a crisis, it is clearly telling sellers that patience, competitive pricing, and presentation matter more now than they did just a few years ago.

The Market Flow Score reinforces this picture. At 3.23 on a scale of zero to ten, the current score sits well below the historical average of 6.56. This composite metric combines active-to-sold ratios, demand-supply velocity, and market turnover efficiency to measure how smoothly inventory is moving through the system. A score under four has historically been associated with slower absorption, more negotiating room for buyers, and continued price softening. For real estate agents working with buyers right now, this number is an argument for action. For agents representing sellers, it is a call to price homes accurately from the start.

Price trends offer a mixed but stabilizing signal. The median sold price in March 2026 is $440,000, which represents a 20.0% decline from the May 2022 peak of $550,000, a drop of $110,000 from the top. On a year-over-year basis, however, the median is actually up slightly, gaining $5,000 compared to March 2025's $435,000. The average sold price for March came in at $589,804, up 1.9% year over year. These modest gains suggest that while the market has not fully recovered from its post-peak correction, the steepest declines may be behind us. Using the market's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.694%, projections suggest the median could return to its peak value of approximately $550,527 by February 2031, assuming current trends continue and no major economic disruptions occur.

Across individual cities, 8 are showing year-over-year median price appreciation while 22 are still showing declines. Wimberley leads the gainers at up 20.1%, followed by Burnet at 15.1% and Lago Vista at 5.9%. On the other end, Marble Falls is down 14.7%, Taylor is off 11.4%, and Elgin has declined 10.0%. The austin housing forecast for these outlier markets is harder to predict, as some are dealing with elevated inventory specific to their own supply dynamics rather than broader metro-wide forces.

From an investment standpoint, the Home Value Index shows that 17 cities, or 56.7% of those tracked, are still classified as overvalued relative to their inflation-adjusted 2020 baselines. Twelve cities, or 40.0%, are classified as fairly valued, and two, Lockhart and Marble Falls, show as undervalued. For long-term investors, the fairly valued and undervalued markets represent the most straightforward entry points based on fundamental valuation, while overvalued areas may require a longer holding period before appreciation offsets current pricing.

For buyers, the message from today's data is consistent with recent weeks: selection is strong, sellers are flexible, and both the Absorption Rate and Market Flow Score suggest that negotiating leverage remains on the buyer's side. For sellers, the 46.7% price reduction rate across active listings is a clear reminder that overpricing in this environment is costly. Homes that are priced right from day one are still closing at roughly 97.36% of list price, which means accurate pricing leads to strong outcomes. For agents and investors, the pending listings trend is the number worth watching most closely. A 10.2% year-over-year gain in pending activity is the strongest demand signal in today's report, and if that trend holds through spring, the austin real estate forecast for mid-2026 may look noticeably more balanced than it does today.

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FAQ SECTION

What is Months of Inventory and what does Austin's number mean for buyers?

Months of Inventory is a measurement that tells you how long it would take to sell every home currently on the market if no new listings were added and sales continued at their current pace. In Austin's case, the current Months of Inventory sits at 5.34 months as of March 30, 2026, which is up 6.1% from the 5.03 months recorded at this same point in 2025. To put that in perspective, six months of inventory is generally considered a balanced market, and anything above that traditionally gives buyers the upper hand. While 5.34 months is approaching that neutral zone, the two-year trend tells a more dramatic story: just two years ago in March 2024, Austin's Months of Inventory stood at roughly 3.95 months, meaning supply has expanded by nearly 49% over that period. For buyers, more inventory means more choices, more time to make decisions, and more room to negotiate on price, terms, and concessions.

Are Austin new construction homes selling faster than resale homes?

Yes, and by a significant margin based on today's data. The Activity Index for new construction in Austin currently stands at 33.62%, which places that segment of the market in the Expansion phase, meaning strong demand and rising prices relative to available supply. Resale homes, by contrast, carry an Activity Index of just 20.80%, placing them in the Softening phase, where sales are slower and inventory is building. One reason for this gap is that builders have more flexibility to offer incentives, rate buydowns, and price adjustments directly, which makes new construction more attractive to buyers who are sensitive to monthly payment costs in a higher-rate environment. With 3,726 new construction listings active and 1,887 already pending, the conversion rate for new construction is meaningfully higher than what resale sellers are achieving. Buyers considering new construction should still negotiate and inspect thoroughly, but the data suggests builders are motivated and competitive right now.

Which Austin suburbs have the best value for homebuyers right now?

Based on today's Home Value Index data, Lockhart and Marble Falls are the only two cities in the tracked Austin metro area currently classified as undervalued relative to their inflation-adjusted 2020 price baseline. Lockhart carries a median sold price of approximately $268,500 against an inflation-adjusted fair value of around $289,000, suggesting buyers may be purchasing below what fundamentals would justify. Marble Falls shows a similar dynamic with a median around $330,995 against a fair value closer to $357,000. From a Months of Inventory perspective, Cedar Park and Round Rock are holding under four months of supply, which suggests stronger demand and potentially more stable long-term appreciation. Buyers looking for value in a softer market may want to focus on fairly valued and undervalued cities first, while keeping in mind that the price reduction rate across the broader Austin market, currently at 46.7%, gives negotiating room in nearly every zip code.

What is the absorption rate in Austin and why does it matter?

The Absorption Rate measures the percentage of active listings that actually sell within a given period, making it one of the most direct indicators of how quickly supply is being consumed by demand. In Austin today, the Absorption Rate sits at 16.36%, compared to a historical average of 31.43%. That gap is substantial. In practical terms, fewer than one in six homes currently listed is selling each month, which means the inventory sitting on the market is growing relative to the pace of closings. During the market's most active years in 2020 and 2021, the Absorption Rate climbed well above 100% in peak months, meaning homes were being absorbed faster than new ones appeared. Today's rate of 16.36% signals that buyers have real choice and that sellers who do not price their homes correctly are likely to sit on the market for an extended period. For real estate agents, understanding the Absorption Rate helps set realistic expectations with seller clients and frame pricing conversations using objective market data rather than emotion.

How does the Austin housing market compare to the national average?

While direct national comparisons require care because local dynamics vary significantly, several of Austin's current indicators suggest the metro is performing below national norms in terms of transaction velocity and price recovery. The Market Flow Score of 3.23, against a historical Austin average of 6.56, reflects a market that is moving at roughly half its typical efficiency. The Absorption Rate of 16.36% is well below Austin's own long-run average of 31.43%, and cumulative sales per 100,000 population for the first quarter of 2026 sit at 238, which is 20.4% below Austin's own historical average for that period. Many major U.S. metros have seen inventory stabilize or tighten since mid-2023, while Austin's inventory has expanded by nearly 49% over the past two years. This divergence is partly a function of Austin's significant construction activity and the rapid in-migration that drove prices to unsustainable peaks in 2021 and 2022. The correction is deeper and longer here than in many comparable cities, which is actually a positive signal for long-term buyers who are acquiring at meaningfully lower prices than the peak.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.