Austin Real Estate Weekly Market Update – February 12, 2026

by: Dan Price, Broker at Team Price Real Estate
Austin's leading data analysis brokerage, where data drives exceptional service
Published on: Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 05:17 am

The Austin housing market moves further into February 2026 with inventory continuing to expand across the broader metro, while the City of Austin shows tighter supply but continued price compression. Active listings across the Austin-Area MLS are up 11.6% year over year, rising from 11,674 to 13,033, as Months of Inventory increased from 4.17 to 4.62, reflecting slower absorption compared to last year. Pricing has shifted lower across both averages and medians. Average and median list prices are down 3% to 4% year over year, and both average and median sold prices have declined by just over 3%, indicating broad-based softening. Within the City of Austin, active listings are down 8.3% year over year to 3,342, and Months of Inventory eased slightly to 4.73. Despite somewhat tighter inventory conditions inside the city, average and median sold prices are down 6% year over year, highlighting continued repricing across much of the urban core.

Scroll down to access the full 850+ page Austin Real Estate Market Report, featuring in-depth statistics for the top 30 cities and 75 ZIP codes across the region. 

Inventory Growth and Market Balance

Active residential listings across the Austin-Area MLS now total 13,033, up from 11,674 at the same point last year, representing an 11.6% year-over-year increase in available supply. Inventory continues to build as new listings enter the market at a pace that exceeds closed sales. Based on current transaction volume, Months of Inventory stands at 4.62, up from 4.17 last year, a 10.8% increase. This confirms that absorption remains slower than it was one year ago. Week over week, inventory levels remain elevated, and supply has not meaningfully tightened.

Inside the City of Austin, inventory trends differ from the broader metro. Active listings have declined from 3,646 last year to 3,342 today, down 8.3% year over year. Months of Inventory has moved from 4.93 to 4.73, a 4.1% decrease. While supply is modestly lower than last year inside the city limits, sales activity has also adjusted, keeping overall balance near similar levels. Homes are not selling at a pace that would suggest strong upward pressure on prices.

Pricing Stability Across the MLS

Pricing across the Austin-Area MLS is now trending lower across both average and median measures. The average active list price has declined from $558,036 last year to $539,239, a 3.4% year-over-year decrease. The median active list price has moved from $419,000 to $399,995, down 4.5% year over year. This indicates that sellers across multiple price ranges have adjusted expectations compared to early 2025.

On the sales side, the average sold price has declined from $536,346 to $519,236, down 3.2% year over year. The median sold price has moved from $407,720 to $392,500, down 3.7%. Unlike prior periods when averages held steady while medians softened, both metrics are now moving lower together. Week over week, pricing remains generally stable, but year-over-year comparisons confirm continued price compression.

Pricing Trends in the City of Austin

Within the City of Austin, pricing adjustments are more pronounced. The average active list price has declined from $783,118 to $730,648, down 6.7% year over year. The median active list price has decreased from $550,000 to $535,000, a 2.7% decline. Sellers in the urban core continue to recalibrate pricing relative to current buyer demand.

Closed-sale data shows similar movement. The average sold price has dropped from $748,462 to $699,360, down 6.6% year over year. The median sold price has declined from $543,000 to $510,000, a 6.1% decrease. These declines are larger than those seen across the broader MLS, indicating that price adjustments inside the city have been more substantial over the past year.

Negotiation and Buyer Leverage

Negotiation remains a defining feature of the Austin housing market. So far this month, 75.24% of all closed sales across the Austin-Area MLS have sold below list price, compared to 70.22% last month. About 15.28% have sold at list price, down from 20.34% last month. Only 9.48% of properties have sold above list price, roughly in line with last month but well below February 2025, when 12.08% sold above list. The average sold-to-list price ratio stands at 96.59%, confirming that price concessions remain common across most segments.

Regional and ZIP Code Variations

Market performance continues to vary across Central Texas. Among the 30 cities tracked, 21 have recorded month-over-month price increases, while 9 have declined. Year over year, 13 cities show price increases and 17 show declines. However, when measured from peak levels over the past 12 months, all 30 cities remain below their prior highs.

At the ZIP code level, dispersion remains wide. Of the 75 ZIP codes tracked, 42 have recorded month-over-month price increases and 30 have declined. Year over year, 32 ZIP codes show price increases and 43 show declines. Only 1 ZIP code is currently above its peak price from the past 12 months, while 74 remain below peak levels. This confirms that while short-term movements vary, the broader reset remains in place.

Prices Relative to Peak Levels

Prices across the Austin-Area MLS remain materially below prior market highs. The average list price peaked in March 2023 at $708,929 and is currently around $625,619, down roughly 11.8% from peak. The median list price peaked in May 2022 at $539,900 and is currently near $429,000, down about 20.5%. The average sold price peaked in May 2022 at $664,515 and is now approximately $555,353, a decline of roughly 16.4%. The median sold price peaked at $538,000 and is now near $420,000, down about 21.9%. On a price-per-square-foot basis, both average and median values remain approximately 23% to 26% below their 2022 highs.

Within the City of Austin, peak-to-current declines are also significant. The average sold price peaked at $847,583 in May 2022 and is currently near $685,334, down about 19%. The median sold price peaked at $680,000 and is now near $532,000, down roughly 21.8%. Price-per-square-foot metrics remain approximately 27% to 29% below peak levels, confirming that valuation adjustments inside the urban core remain substantial.

Market Outlook

As February 2026 progresses, the Austin housing market continues to operate in a slower and more measured environment. Inventory across the Austin-Area MLS remains higher than last year, Months of Inventory has expanded, and most homes are selling below list price. Both average and median pricing measures are lower year over year, particularly within the City of Austin. Buyers continue to have negotiating leverage, while sellers must price realistically relative to current absorption levels.

Austin Real Estate Questions and Answers

Why are Austin home prices declining?

Austin home prices are adjusting because affordability expanded too aggressively during the 2021–2022 surge and mortgage rates more than doubled from pandemic lows, reducing buyer purchasing power. When rates rise, monthly payments increase even if prices stay flat, which shrinks the qualified buyer pool. With today’s rate around 6.125%, the payment on a median-priced home remains materially higher than it was in 2020–2021, so prices have had to recalibrate. This is not a collapse, but a normalization as the market aligns with income levels and borrowing costs.

Is Austin a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?

Austin is operating in a balanced to buyer-leaning market. Months of inventory sits around the mid-4 range, and roughly three-quarters of homes are selling below list price, which signals negotiating leverage for buyers. Sellers can still achieve strong results when priced correctly, but overpricing leads to longer days on market and price reductions. The environment rewards realistic pricing and strong property presentation.

Are home prices in Austin still falling?

On a year-over-year basis, yes, prices are modestly lower. Both average and median sold prices across the Austin-Area MLS have declined a few percentage points compared to last year, with somewhat larger adjustments inside the City of Austin. However, most of the correction occurred after the 2022 peak. Current movements are gradual, reflecting steady repricing rather than sharp declines.

Why aren’t homes in Austin selling as quickly?

Homes are selling, but buyer behavior has changed. Higher rates mean higher payments, and buyers are more payment-focused than price-focused. Many sellers are still anchored to peak values, which creates pricing gaps that slow activity. When a home is aligned with current demand and affordability, it moves. When it is priced based on 2022 expectations, it sits.

What income is needed to live comfortably in Austin?

Using the 28% rule, which suggests housing costs should not exceed 28% of gross income, a median-priced home around $432,000 at a 6.125% rate with 20% down produces a payment near $3,152 per month. To keep that at or below 28% of income, a household would need roughly $11,250 per month in gross income, or about $135,000 annually. Lower price points, larger down payments, or dual incomes can reduce that threshold, but this provides a practical benchmark for comfortable ownership at the median level.

Will Austin experience a housing crash in 2026?

Current data does not support a crash scenario. Inventory is elevated but not excessive, foreclosure activity remains historically low, and most homeowners have substantial equity. Prices are adjusting gradually as affordability improves from 2022 extremes. A crash typically requires forced selling and credit instability, neither of which is evident today. The more likely outcome is continued normalization rather than a sharp downturn.