U.S. Pending Home Sales Index
Explore the NAR Pending Home Sales Index for the Austin area, featuring historical and current data on pending home sales trends. View the PDF for detailed insights into the Austin real estate market, sourced from the National Association of Realtors®
NAR Pending Home Sales Index – July 30, 2025 Update
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released the latest Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) figures, providing updated insight into contract signings through June 2025. The data continues to underscore a market struggling to regain long-term momentum, with activity levels still well below historical norms despite marginal month-to-month adjustments.
For June 2025, the PHS registered at 88.1, representing a 0.3% increase over May’s revised reading of 87.8. However, on a year-over-year basis, the index was down 0.3% compared to June 2024’s 88.4, reflecting another month of stagnation in pending contract activity. To put these figures in context, the long-term historical average for June is 121.4, leaving today’s reading nearly 27.5% below average for this time of year.
This June report follows a similar pattern to the first half of 2025, where contract activity showed small sequential gains without establishing sustained growth. The year began at 57.0 in January, climbed to 67.4 in February, and peaked for the year so far at 89.9 in March. April slipped to 86.6 before May and June brought slight improvements, but not enough to indicate a market recovery.
When looking at the aggregate numbers for the first six months of 2025, total pending sales volume reached 476.8, down 2.6% year-over-year and nearly 25% below the long-term historical average of 635. This points to a housing market still in a prolonged slowdown, continuing a pattern that began with steep declines in 2023, carried through muted activity in 2024, and remains entrenched halfway through 2025.
Historically, June is a peak month for pending sales activity, often exceeding 140 during the housing boom years of 2004–2006 and again topping 130 during the 2015–2019 expansion cycle. Even in pandemic-influenced 2020, the index reached 145.7 in June, fueled by a wave of post-lockdown demand. The current reading of 88.1 illustrates just how far the market remains from those more robust conditions, despite comparatively stable mortgage rates in recent months.
Market volatility in 2025 has been muted compared to past cycles. Monthly changes in pending sales this year have averaged less than 2%, a stark contrast to the double-digit swings often seen during post-recession rebounds or the pandemic-driven surges of 2020–2021. This lack of volatility reflects a market that is not crashing but is firmly stalled, with affordability challenges and cautious consumer behavior limiting contract signings.
The gap between current and historical activity levels underscores the ongoing impact of affordability constraints, tight inventory in many desirable segments, and broader economic uncertainty. Mortgage rates have steadied compared to the spikes of 2022 and 2023, yet elevated home prices and weakened buyer sentiment are preventing a stronger rebound in demand.
It is important to note that the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator for existing home sales, typically leading closed transactions by one to two months. With the PHS continuing to trend well below historical norms, expectations for closed sales this summer remain subdued. The data suggests a continuation of low transaction volume, with no immediate signs of a near-term surge in buyer activity.
Looking back over two decades of data, the median historical reading for June stands at 123.1, highlighting just how underperforming today’s market is compared to long-term trends. The persistent shortfall relative to both the average and median levels reinforces the view that 2025’s housing market remains in a low-activity cycle, well below what would be considered a healthy, balanced pace of contract signings.
The overall takeaway from this latest report is clear: while the housing market has stabilized from the volatility of recent years, it has not recovered. Pending home sales remain trapped at historically low levels, with June’s data extending the flat trajectory seen throughout the first half of 2025. Until affordability improves or broader economic conditions shift decisively in favor of buyers, significant gains in contract activity are unlikely.
Copyright ©2025“Pending Home Sales.” NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. May 30, 2025. https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales
